Prairie View A&M

Conference:	SWAC
Expected RPI:	247.0
Current RPI:	247
Expected SOS:	326
Current SOS:	326
Current Record:	15-18
Expected Record:	15-18
Current Conf Record:	13-7
Expected Conf Record:	13-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-9
Current OOC Record:	2-11
Expected OOC Record:	2-11
Expected OOC RPI:	190
Expected OOC SOS:	19

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-18	247.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Prairie View A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Utah (59.0)	P12	A	83-62	L	0%
11-13	Oregon (72.0)	P12	A	100-67	L	0%
11-15	UNLV (134.0)	MWC	A	98-63	L	0%
11-20	Eastern Kentucky (271.0)	OVC	N	70-80	W	100%
11-22	Georgia St. (120.0)	SB	N	56-71	W	100%
11-24	UC Santa Barbara (127.0)	BW	A	69-66	L	0%
12-3	New Mexico St. (35.0)	WAC	A	69-57	L	0%
12-6	Hawaii (213.0)	BW	A	72-60	L	0%
12-9	Texas A&M (29.0)	SEC	A	73-53	L	0%
12-14	Tulsa (89.0)	Amer	A	77-73	L	0%
12-17	Houston (18.0)	Amer	A	92-72	L	0%
12-20	Ohio (204.0)	MAC	A	84-65	L	0%
12-22	New Mexico (118.0)	MWC	A	87-78	L	0%
1-1	Alcorn St. (348.0)	SWAC	H	76-64	W	100%
1-3	Southern (315.0)	SWAC	H	78-74	W	100%
1-6	Texas Southern (222.0)	SWAC	A	100-94	L	0%
1-13	Grambling St. (249.0)	SWAC	A	80-71	L	0%
1-15	Jackson St. (330.0)	SWAC	A	79-71	L	0%
1-20	Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)	SWAC	H	66-72	L	0%
1-22	Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)	SWAC	H	93-77	W	100%
1-27	Alabama St. (333.0)	SWAC	A	80-86	W	100%
1-29	Alabama A&M (350.0)	SWAC	A	67-88	W	100%
2-3	Texas Southern (222.0)	SWAC	H	96-82	W	100%
2-10	Grambling St. (249.0)	SWAC	H	85-90	L	0%
2-12	Jackson St. (330.0)	SWAC	H	63-58	W	100%
2-17	Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)	SWAC	A	71-76	W	100%
2-19	Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)	SWAC	A	76-71	L	0%
2-24	Alabama St. (333.0)	SWAC	H	80-74	W	100%
2-26	Alabama A&M (350.0)	SWAC	H	71-58	W	100%
3-1	Alcorn St. (348.0)	SWAC	A	69-79	W	100%
3-3	Southern (315.0)	SWAC	A	69-77	W	100%
3-6	Alcorn St. (348.0)	SWAC	H	87-71	W	100%
3-9	Texas Southern (222.0)	SWAC	N	74-88	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Prairie View A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Prairie View A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Prairie View A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	26.44	26.44	51.88	51.88	0.99	0.99
Texas Southern	SWAC	5.50	5.50	41.94	41.94	-0.89	-0.89
Alcorn St.	SWAC	5.36	5.36	28.00	28.00	-2.36	-2.36
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	4.11	4.11	39.39	39.39	-0.87	-0.87
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	4.00	4.00	10.00	10.00	-3.20	-3.20
Southern	SWAC	4.00	4.00	44.83	44.83	-0.41	-0.41
Alabama St.	SWAC	3.99	3.99	27.59	27.59	-1.79	-1.79
Alabama A&M	SWAC	3.95	3.95	10.34	10.34	-3.14	-3.14
Jackson St.	SWAC	3.95	3.95	32.14	32.14	-1.41	-1.41
Grambling St.	SWAC	3.90	3.90	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	1.68	1.68	63.64	63.64	0.46	0.46
Utah	P12	1.66	1.66	62.07	62.07	0.40	0.40
Hawaii	BW	1.63	1.63	51.85	51.85	0.06	0.06
UNLV	MWC	1.63	1.63	59.38	59.38	0.31	0.31
New Mexico	MWC	1.61	1.61	53.12	53.12	0.10	0.10
UC Santa Barbara	BW	1.59	1.59	68.97	68.97	0.60	0.60
Georgia St.	SB	1.56	1.56	70.97	70.97	0.66	0.66
Ohio	MAC	1.56	1.56	41.38	41.38	-0.27	-0.27
New Mexico St.	WAC	1.56	1.56	82.76	82.76	1.02	1.02
Texas A&M	SEC	1.54	1.54	61.29	61.29	0.35	0.35
Houston	Amer	1.54	1.54	78.12	78.12	0.87	0.87
Tulsa	Amer	1.54	1.54	60.00	60.00	0.31	0.31
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	1.52	1.52	32.14	32.14	-0.54	-0.54
Tulane	Amer	0.25	0.25	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.20	0.20	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
USC	P12	0.19	0.19	67.65	67.65	0.07	0.07
Utah St.	MWC	0.19	0.19	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.19	0.19	88.24	88.24	0.14	0.14
Washington St.	P12	0.18	0.18	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
UC Irvine	BW	0.18	0.18	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.17	0.17	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Toledo	MAC	0.17	0.17	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Arizona	P12	0.16	0.16	79.41	79.41	0.10	0.10
Wyoming	MWC	0.16	0.16	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.16	0.16	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Fresno St.	MWC	0.16	0.16	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
LSU	SEC	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.15	0.15	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
East Carolina	Amer	0.15	0.15	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.14	0.14	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Troy	SB	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
BYU	WCC	0.14	0.14	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
Oregon St.	P12	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.13	0.13	24.14	24.14	-0.07	-0.07
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.13	0.13	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.12	0.12	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.12	0.12	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.12	0.12	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
UCF	Amer	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.12	0.12	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Wichita St.	Amer	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Colorado St.	MWC	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Boise St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	73.33	73.33	0.05	0.05
SMU	Amer	0.11	0.11	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.10	0.10	62.07	62.07	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.10	0.10	14.29	14.29	-0.07	-0.07
Long Beach St.	BW	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
UC Riverside	BW	0.10	0.10	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	B10	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.10	0.10	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Ball St.	MAC	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
UAB	CUSA	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.10	0.10	17.24	17.24	-0.06	-0.06
Liberty	BSth	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
UCLA	P12	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Washington	P12	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
South Florida	Amer	0.09	0.09	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Temple	Amer	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.09	0.09	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
San Jose St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	10.34	10.34	-0.07	-0.07
Texas St.	SB	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.09	0.09	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
TCU	B12	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Creighton	BE	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	WAC	0.08	0.08	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	3.33	3.33	-0.07	-0.07
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.07	0.07	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
UTEP	CUSA	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.07	0.07	24.24	24.24	-0.04	-0.04
DePaul	BE	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
UT Arlington	SB	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Oakland	Horz	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Syracuse	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Mercer	SC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
North Texas	CUSA	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
UMKC	WAC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.03	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.03	-0.03
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.03	0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.04	0.04	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.04	0.04	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.04	0.04	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UTSA	CUSA	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.02	0.02	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Utah	BSky	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00